Decision Model and Forecasting
Bringing Applied Digital’s CoreWeave Campus Online in Ellendale, North Dakota
What must be verified before the remaining AI capacity can be delivered?
Polaris Forge 1 · Applied Digital · CoreWeavePolaris Forge 1 primary record
Applied Digital has leased 400 MW of critical IT capacity across three AI buildings to CoreWeave at Polaris Forge 1. Its July 2026 disclosures reported 175 MW ready for service. This model follows how leases, electric service, financing, local development and commissioning fit together, and what the parties need to verify before the remaining buildings become usable capacity.
Source-grounded whole-case history with explicitly illustrative actor objectives, unobserved alternatives and future choices. Signed contracts, official orders and dated reports are distinct from actual engineering acceptance.
Polaris Forge 1 decision timeline
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30 / 30 decision points
● Past decision✓ decided× not taken○ Upcoming◆ Expected★ Best move
Hosting foundation and AI build
Hosting foundation and AI build
- Past decision point.
The issuer’s retrospective dates groundbreaking of the separate 180 MW hosting facility to September 8, 2022. This is the local foundation, not 400 MW of AI capacity.
- Past decision point.
The issuer reports the separate 180 MW hosting facility began operations on March 7, 2023. The AI buildings and their critical IT capacity series remain separate.
- Past decision point.
The October 2023 announcement describes a 100 MW HPC facility and quotes an 80 MW IT design. The later 100 MW critical IT rating is not assumed to be identical to this early design.
- Past decision point.
The later signed PSC order dates original ESA approval to May23,2024. That authority precedes the August expansion request and does not prove later energization.
Service authority and local capacity
Service authority and local capacity
- Past decision point.
Territorial coordination clears the request
Dakota Valley confirms its no-protest position within the existing service-area agreement.
Do not protest the CPCNSeek a service-area clarification first - Past decision point.
MDU files ESA Amendment2. The public document redacts pricing and operational details; the later order confirms proposed service increasing from 225 to 350 MW with an August 2030 expiry.
- Past decision point.
MDU applies for permanent distribution-service authority over the Section 4 expansion and seeks 125 MW of additional capacity. An application is a request, not an approval.
- Past decision point.
APLD’s annual filing records the initial UPA and later assignment before the October amended terms and completed initial funding. Agreement execution is distinct from cash closing.
- Past decision point.
A joint informal hearing considers the CPCN and ESA. MDU separates the 350 MW expansion agreement from the other 180 MW agreement and presents modeled customer-rate impacts.
- Past decision point.
Distribution authority and the ESA are approved
PSC issues certificate6006 and approves the 350 MW ESA amendment. The orders settle dated authority and rate questions, not later commissioning.
Approve the specified service and ESA amendmentSeek more information before approval - Past decision point.
APLD identifies the February11 SMBC Credit and Guaranty Agreement. It later reports repayment with the November project notes. The underlying original credit terms are not fully audited.
- Past decision point.
Local housing becomes a development dependency
The official visit documents Applied Digital, Headwaters and BND housing coordination for 20 homes and 38 apartments. Completion and staffing contributions remain unverified.
Participate in the announced housing effortWait for clearer occupancy needsParticipate in the announced housing effortWait for clearer occupancy needsParticipate in the announced housing effortWait for clearer occupancy needs - Past decision point.
The governor’s visit documents housing coordination and signing of backup-generation siting legislation. Neither establishes a PF1-specific permit or completed housing.
Lease commitments and construction capital
Lease commitments and construction capital
- Past decision point.
CoreWeave contracts the first two AI buildings
Executed leases link 100 MW ELN02 and 150 MW ELN03 to phased delivery, commissioning and rent conditions.
Execute the phased leasesDefer the capacity commitmentExecute the phased leasesDefer the capacity commitment - Past decision point.
The third AI lease expands the commitment to 400 MW
CoreWeave’s additional 150 MW lease with APLD ELN-02 C completes the 400 MW contracted AI campus.
Add the third 150 MW leaseDefer the third-building commitment - Past decision point.
The 10-K narrative says the first 100 MW AI building became operational in October 2025; Note17 says November. The model retains the October–November window and does not invent an exact acceptance date.
- Past decision point.
The initial Macquarie preferred-equity closing occurs
APLD reports $112.5 million closed for PF1 under the staged preferred-equity agreement. Broader portfolio funding rights remain separate.
Complete the initial equity closingDelay closing if required conditions are unmet - Past decision point.
Project debt finances the first two AI buildings
APLD reports $2.35 billion of notes closed for ELN02/03 construction, existing debt, reserves and expenses. Parent completion obligations remain.
Close the project notesContinue temporary funding while arranging takeout Tenant restructuring and staged delivery
Tenant restructuring and staged delivery
- Past decision point.
Tenant obligations move into a financing SPV
The ELN03 assignment and ELN02 hall restructuring change direct tenant obligations. Parent springing guarantees are separate, partly redacted obligations.
Execute the documented SPV arrangementRetain the original direct tenant structureExecute the documented SPV arrangementRetain the original direct tenant structureExecute the documented SPV arrangementRetain the original direct tenant structure - Past decision point.
The executed ELN03 parent guaranty springs on specified events; several trigger terms are redacted. Unconditional recourse after a trigger does not mean immediate unconditional parent recourse.
- Past decision point.
APLD reports a $300 million bridge for legal Building4, the physical third AI building. Later notes repay the bridge. No extra fourth AI building is added.
- Past decision point.
Third-building notes replace temporary funding
ComputeCo3 notes fund legal Building4, the physical third AI building, and repay the $300 million bridge. PF2 ComputeCo2 financing is excluded.
Close third-building notes and repay the bridgeSeek an extension or other temporary funding - Past decision point.
APLD’s July1 and July27 reports date the second AI building’s 75 MW tranche delivery to June30 and cumulative ready-for-service capacity to 175 MW. This is dated issuer-reported capacity; October1 capacity is not independently verified.
- Past decision point.
The 10-K retains a calendar 2026 target for the second AI building and mid-2027 for the third. Descriptions of first operation and third-building construction stage differ within the filing. The targets are not private contractual deadlines.
- Past decision point.
CoreWeave’s quarterly filing documents CCACVIII’s conditional DDTL4.0 equipment facility, including a June 2027 draw-period end. It does not name Ellendale or confirm its delivered capacity.
- Past decision point.
APLD schedules October7 results. This creates an information checkpoint, not an observed construction decision or an automatic model refresh.
Remaining second AI building
Remaining second AI building
- Decision pointUpcoming.
Verify service for the next AI tranche
An analytical review before the end-2026 target connects actual service scope, authority and tranche energization to the equipment-readiness plan.
Select a move to inspect an illustrative alternative. ◆ Expected is the move the model expects. ★ Best move is the best fit to that party's modeled objectives among the alternatives assessed.
Expected for MDU. The model expects MDU to make this move, while a different alternative is Best move.Best move for MDU. The model expects MDU to make a different move; this alternative is best aligned with MDU's modeled objectives among the alternatives assessed.Expected for Applied Digital. The model expects Applied Digital to make this move, while a different alternative is Best move.Best move for Applied Digital. The model expects Applied Digital to make a different move; this alternative is best aligned with Applied Digital's modeled objectives among the alternatives assessed. - Decision pointUpcoming.
Complete the second AI building in the 2026 target window
An analytical end-of-window review of the company’s calendar 2026 target. The inspected 175 MW report leaves 75 MW of the second AI building beyond that reported total; this does not establish today’s remaining construction.
Expected for Applied Digital. The model expects Applied Digital to make this move, while a different alternative is Best move.Best move for Applied Digital. The model expects Applied Digital to make a different move; this alternative is best aligned with Applied Digital's modeled objectives among the alternatives assessed.Expected for CoreWeave SPV. The model expects CoreWeave SPV to make this move, while a different alternative is Best move.Best move for CoreWeave SPV. The model expects CoreWeave SPV to make a different move; this alternative is best aligned with CoreWeave SPV's modeled objectives among the alternatives assessed. Third AI building and campus completion
Third AI building and campus completion
- Decision pointUpcoming.
Review third-building completion resources
An analytical funding review before the mid-2027 target. Project notes and initial preferred-equity closings have already occurred; those historical choices remain fixed.
Expected for Applied Digital. The model expects Applied Digital to make this move, while a different alternative is Best move.Best move for Applied Digital. The model expects Applied Digital to make a different move; this alternative is best aligned with Applied Digital's modeled objectives among the alternatives assessed.Expected for Macquarie. The model expects Macquarie to make this move, while a different alternative is Best move.Best move for Macquarie. The model expects Macquarie to make a different move; this alternative is best aligned with Macquarie's modeled objectives among the alternatives assessed. - Decision pointUpcoming.
Bring the third AI building through the mid-2027 target window
June30 is an analytical anchor for mid-2027, not an exact contract deadline. Construction, service, commissioning and tenant installation are separate gates for the third AI building’s 150 MW.
Expected for Applied Digital. The model expects Applied Digital to make this move, while a different alternative is Best move.Best move for Applied Digital. The model expects Applied Digital to make a different move; this alternative is best aligned with Applied Digital's modeled objectives among the alternatives assessed.Expected for CoreWeave. The model expects CoreWeave to make this move, while a different alternative is Best move.Best move for CoreWeave. The model expects CoreWeave to make a different move; this alternative is best aligned with CoreWeave's modeled objectives among the alternatives assessed.
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Illustrative decision model grounded in public sources. Hypothetical choices and effects are distinct from recorded events.